Peter Burke
Chair
Oxford For Europe
4 May 2025
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Local elections can sometimes be of national importance
There is some irony in the fact that this week’s UK electoral shock coincided almost exactly with the end of Donald Trump’s first hundred days in office. There will be those who say that what links the two is the irresistible tide of history. I think we need to question that.
Celebrate?
Oxford for Europe is obviously not a party political organisation. Our members and supporters are drawn from a wide political spectrum, and from all the parties which share our values. We can however celebrate whenever pro-European parties do well.
Last Thursday’s election will undoubtedly be remembered for a long time, and not always the right reasons. Overall in Oxfordshire we have grounds to be pleased. The county was for many years stubbornly Conservative, and since 2013 under no overall control. This week Oxfordshire voters elected 36 Liberal Democrat county councillors, which constitutes an overall majority and will allow them to implement their policies at county level.
Nationally, however, the picture is somewhat different. As has been widely reported, Farage and his people have exceeded expectations. In Runcorn they reversed a 15,000 Labour majority. They won control of 10 of the 23 county councils which were contested. This contrasts with three for the Liberal Democrats and none for Labour or the Conservatives (10 councils have no overall control). The Conservatives will of course argue that they’re coming down from a high water mark in 2021, but nonetheless to lose control of all 16 of their councils in one go is more than just carelessness. And for Labour there is no consolation.
From rhetoric to ruling
The Reform Party has attracted huge electoral support since the general election of 2024. What have they got right? It was in part better organisation, the effective use of social media, access to funds (both UK and elsewhere) and a shift in the Overton window which is taking place both here and abroad.
But what is in the minds of the voters? Is a vote for Reform simply a rejection of the two big parties, and therefore something which can be reversed if and when those parties can restore their credibility with the public? Or is it that Reform is offering something positive and of enduring appeal? How much of it is the personality cult of Farage himself and how much is it to do with policy? Different pundits will give different answers to those questions. On the one hand Reform took a massive number of votes from what have been up to now the 2 main parties. On the other the shift towards the Liberal Democrats and Greens, who might have been seen as alternative parties of protest, was relatively modest. This despite the fact that those parties succeeded in gaining substantial numbers of new seats, not only in Oxfordshire but around the country.
This tells us something about the appeal of Reform itself. There must be significant numbers of people are drawn to Reform’s policies, at least insofar as they know and understand them. And I would argue that that is not a reasonable attitude. Even at a time where Reform’s signature policy, Brexit, is recognised as a mistake by most voters, and Farage himself has admitted that in its present form it has failed, he seems not to be getting punished for leading the country into it. The wish to reduce inward migration is very often quoted as a reason to support Reform. And yet the current high levels of migration, to anyone who thinks about it, are in part a direct consequence of Brexit: irregular migration because the UK has left the Dublin III regulations, and regular migration from outside Europe because of necessity and the points-based system whose introduction Farage himself supported. The party has not given any clear workable plans to achieve its objectives. Farage and friends have not been able to demonstrate competence in their few opportunities at local government. And many of their policies, for example turning the NHS into an insurance based system, would frighten off most voters if only they had been told about them.
Put to the test
Will Reform’s success continue? They will now be put to the test, with large numbers of wholly inexperienced and untried councillors having to take on the responsibility of running local authorities. In 10 county councils, they will not even have to go into coalition with any other parties, so they will be held entirely accountable for what happens, and it is unlikely to be a pretty sight. What we know already is that they will take lessons from Trump’s playbook, however badly that has worked in his first hundred days. At local level they will ban working from home, with all the additional personal and environmental costs that carries. They will get rid of equality and diversity policies, however much these are still needed. They will cut spending on special needs education and personal care. They will do all they can to block the path towards net zero. Is this really what people voted for?
Perhaps especially striking is the fact that reform are now, by a big margin, the controlling party in Kent County Council, the largest of the country. This is of course where Farage has been filmed in a boat and with his binoculars telling us what he will do about irregular migrants crossing the channel. Perhaps he will learn that his solutions do not work. In Kent his party will also be responsible for the various Brexit lorry parks. They will see first hand what problems and pain their policies are causing, although whether they are capable of publicly acknowledging this will be another matter.
Learn the right lessons
Going forward, the most important thing is that the right lessons are learnt from this debacle. It would be tragic if the main parties simply throw in the towel and watch Farage continue what many see as his inexorable march towards number 10 Downing Street. For the Tories to go into coalition with Reform, even if Reform wanted it, would be a mistake as their more moderate members will simply abandon them. For Labour to steer even further to the right, thinking they can out-Farage Farage, would be an equally big mistake. Who wants Farage Lite when they can have the real thing? And the more you feed the right wing monster the more he wants. Many would argue that it is the Labour government’s attempts to outdo the right-wing parties which have cost them so dearly. Now it is time to listen to their own traditional base, who are broadly pro-European, internationalist and repulsed by Trumpian politics.
The government has an opportunity to show where it is heading at the forthcoming summit with the EU, on 19 May. If they have sense they will recognise the need to look at the evidence, to ignore nonsensical cries of ‘Brexit betrayal’, to turn their back on isolationism, and at last to engage constructively.
These themes will no doubt feature in Oxford for Europe’s next public event, on 22 May. See here for details.
Also: Save the date. We will be hosting Caroline Lucas on 18 June
The views expressed here are the author’s own and not necessarily representative of Oxford for Europe
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See Also:
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